Volatility Space | EZstates Elections

Volatility Space

Every demographic group mapped by its two volatility dimensions — V_time (how much partisanship shifts election-to-election) and V_space (how much it varies across states). Together they reveal whether a group is a synchronized mover, a geographically fractured bloc, a universal wildcard, or a bedrock anchor.

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Groups
mapped

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Universal
wildcards

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Synchronized
movers

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Geographically
fractured

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Bedrock
anchors

GuideThe Four Volatility Quadrants

⬆ V_time · ⬆ V_space — Universal Wildcards

Volatile both over time and across states. These groups have no settled partisan home — they swing election-to-election AND behave differently depending on geography. The hardest to predict and most consequential in close cycles.

⬆ V_time · ⬇ V_space — Synchronized Movers

The group moves in unison nationally — when it shifts, it shifts everywhere at once. High temporal volatility but geographically coherent. A campaign can move these voters with a single national message.

⬇ V_time · ⬆ V_space — Geographically Fractured

Stable over time but deeply divided by geography. The "same" group is reliably Democratic in one region and reliably Republican in another. State-by-state strategy is required — no national message works.

⬇ V_time · ⬇ V_space — Bedrock Anchors

Low volatility in both dimensions. These groups vote consistently across time and place — the reliable base blocks. High CP groups here are the backbone of each party's coalition.

01V_time × V_space Scatter

Color by Quadrant Avg P Avg CP Avg SP

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02All Groups — Volatility Rankings

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