U.S. Presidential Elections · Exit Poll Intelligence · 2004–2024 · Voter Turnout 1980–2024
135 groups. 50 states. 20 Presidential elections.
All in one place.
The first quantitative system to classify presidential elections, track demographic coalition shifts, and measure who decided each state — built on every major exit poll since 2004. Now includes state-by-state voter turnout from 1980 to 2024. ANES 1948-2024.
135
Demographic
groups tracked
groups tracked
50
States
covered
covered
20
Presidential
elections
elections
9,787
Group-state-year
observations
observations
3,794
Cross-election
comparisons
comparisons
1980–2024
Voter turnout
data (USEIT)
data (USEIT)
Where would you like to start?
Start with the groups — who they are and how they behave. Then see how groups shape state outcomes. Then zoom out to classify elections and rank national power.
Section I
The Groups
— Who are the 135 demographic groups and how do they behave?
Deep Analysis · 01
Group Space
All 135 demographic groups plotted simultaneously — partisanship on x, electorate share on y, bubble size encodes share, volatility ring encodes V_total. Switch x axis to Critical Power or Swing Power for a strategic campaign lens.
P · CP · SP
Volatility Ring
135 Groups
2004–2024
Example questions
Which groups are large but contested?
Who has the highest swing power in 2024?
Which groups became more volatile over time?
Open Group Space →
Deep Analysis · 02
Group Explorer
Pick any of the 135 groups and any election year to see that group's partisanship across all 50 states on a choropleth map — with trend line, V.O. Key typology breakdown by state, and a sortable state table.
Choropleth Map
P Trend Line
Key Typology
State Table
Example questions
How did college-educated women vote in 2020?
Where are Hispanic voters most Republican?
Open Group Explorer →
Section II
Groups × States
— How do groups change state-level outcomes?
Deep Analysis · 03
Switcher Map
A national map of every demographic group that switched partisan direction between two elections — colored by direction (Rep→Dem or Dem→Rep), sized by Critical Power, and flagged when the switch was individually decisive in flipping the state.
Switch Direction
CP Sizing
Decisive Flag
All 50 States
Example questions
Which groups flipped from Obama to Trump?
What was the decisive switch in Georgia 2020?
Which states had the most switchers in 2016?
Open Switcher Map →
Deep Analysis · 04
State Switchers
Which states flipped party across six presidential elections, how much electoral weight each flip carried, and whether the switch held for multiple cycles or reversed the next election. Reveals durable realignments vs one-off shocks at the state level.
Party Timeline
Electoral Votes
Durability Bars
2004–2024
Example questions
Which states flipped in 2016 and stayed Republican?
How many one-cycle reversals happened across all elections?
Which election produced the most durable state-level shifts?
Open State Switchers →
Deep Analysis · 06
State Profile
Deep dive into any state: which groups carry the most Critical Power and Swing Power, how group partisanship trended across six elections, which groups switched direction, and which switches were individually decisive. Includes CP vs SP power scatter.
CP · SP Scatter
Power Bar Chart
P Trend Lines
V.O. Key Typology
Example questions
What are the most powerful groups in Pennsylvania?
Which group flipped Georgia in 2020?
How has Arizona's coalition changed since 2004?
Open State Profile →
Section III
Election Analysis
— What kind of election was it, and who decided it nationally?
Interactive · 10a
Electoral College Games
Two interactive games: build your own path to 270 by assigning any state to either party, or start from the actual 2024 result (Trump 312–Harris 226) and flip states to change the winner — sorted by smallest margin first.
Path to 270
Flip 2024
All 50 States
Live EV Tally
Try it
Can Harris win by flipping just WI + MI + PA?
Build any winning coalition from scratch
Open EC Games →
Deep Analysis · 07
Election Type Observatory
Classifies each presidential election as Maintaining, Deviating, Converting, or Realigning using a CP-weighted mean |ΔP| scalar — the first quantitative operationalization of the Key–Campbell typology across 135 groups and 50 states.
Key–Campbell Typology
CP-weighted |ΔP|
Decisive Switches
State Volatility Map
Example questions
Was 2008 a realigning election?
How did 2020 compare to 2016?
Which election shifted coalitions most?
Open Observatory →
Deep Analysis · 08
National Power Matrix
Every demographic group in every state plotted by Critical Power (CP) and Swing Power (SP), weighted by state competitiveness. Best understood after Section I and II. Reveals which group × state combinations are most electorally decisive nationally.
CP · SP · Decisive Power
50 States × 135 Groups
Competitiveness Weight
2004–2024
Example questions
Which group × state pairs are most electorally decisive?
Where do white non-college voters matter most?
Who are the true national swing deciders?
Open National Power Matrix →
Deep Analysis · 09
Volatility Space
Every demographic group mapped by V_time (how much partisanship shifts election-to-election) and V_space (how much it varies across states). Reveals whether a group is a universal wildcard, a synchronized mover, geographically fractured, or a bedrock anchor.
V_time · V_space · V_total
Four Quadrant Analysis
135 Groups
Cross-Election
Example questions
Which groups are most unpredictable nationally?
Do Latinos shift together or differ by region?
Which groups are the steadiest anchors?
Open Volatility Space →
Deep Analysis · 10
Elections Ask
Ask any question about presidential elections in plain English. Group vote shares, electoral power, state results, longitudinal trends, battleground comparisons, and electoral college facts — all answered from the Pulse index framework.
Natural Language
P · CP · SP · V
135 Groups · 50 States
2004–2024
Example questions
How did Black women vote in Pennsylvania in 2020?
What is the critical power of Hispanic voters in Texas 2024?
Which groups are most volatile nationally?
Open Elections Ask →
Section IV
Voter Turnout
— Who showed up? State-by-state VEP turnout, 1980–2024
Section V
National Context
— What was the economic and demographic backdrop of each election?
Quick Lookup
Direct Data Tools
— Fast, raw-percentage answers to single questions
Raw exit-poll percentages without indexing. Best for direct lookups; the Deep Analysis sections above add cross-election context and typology.
Quick Lookup · 01
Electoral College Facts
Electoral college totals, popular vote margins, and state-by-state results for every presidential election since 2004. The foundational data layer.
Electoral Votes
Popular Vote
State Results
Example questions
How many electoral votes did Obama win in 2008?
What was Trump's margin in Pennsylvania in 2016?
Open Electoral Facts →
Quick Lookup · 02
Longitudinal Trends
Select any state and see Dem/Rep popular vote over 2004–2024, demographic group vote shares over time, and how voter composition shifted — in raw percentages.
Popular Vote Trend
Group Vote % Over Time
Composition Shift
Example questions
How did the Dem vote change in Wisconsin 2004–2024?
How did seniors vote in Ohio over time?
Open Longitudinal →
Quick Lookup · 03
State Analysis
Choose a state and year to see the top Dem-voting groups, top Rep-voting groups, and electorate composition ranked by raw support percentage. Includes battleground state quick-view.
Top Dem Groups
Top Rep Groups
Composition
Example questions
Which groups voted most Democratic in Virginia in 2020?
What was the electorate makeup of Nevada in 2016?
Open State Analysis →
Quick Lookup · 04
Battleground Comparison
The only tool comparing group support across multiple battleground states simultaneously — Dem vs Rep support for each group side-by-side, plus electorate share differences across states.
Cross-State Compare
Group Support %
Battleground Focus
Example questions
How did Hispanic voters compare across PA, AZ, NV in 2020?
Which battleground had the most college-educated voters?
Open Battleground Comparison →